Seven states that may decide the US presidency
US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are heading towards a November 5 election showdown, anticipated to be one of the closest contests in recent American history.
In the handful of critical states shaping the 2024 race, the two candidates are neck and neck with just over a week until Election Day.
According to the US Constitution, each of the 50 states holds its own presidential vote. Under the Electoral College system, each state has a set number of “electors” based on its population, and most states operate a winner-takes-all system, awarding all electors to the candidate who wins the popular vote there.
With 270 of the 538 electoral votes needed to win, elections are often decided in highly contested “swing states” with a history of alternating between Republican and Democratic candidates. This year, seven such battleground states are too close to call. Here’s a look at each:
• Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College votes) –
Once reliably Democratic, Pennsylvania is now fiercely contested.
Trump narrowly won this most populous battleground, with 13 million residents, in 2016 by 0.7 percentage points, while Biden reclaimed it by 1.2 points in 2020. Known for its “Rust Belt” cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania has long suffered from a declining industrial base.
Trump, who survived an assassination attempt at a July rally in the state, is appealing to rural white voters, warning that migrants are overwhelming small towns. Harris is promoting recent infrastructure initiatives, pledging $100 billion in manufacturing investment in Pittsburgh.
• Georgia (16 votes) –
This southeastern state was a flashpoint at the end of Trump’s first term, and controversy continues. Georgia prosecutors charged Trump in an election interference case after he called state officials urging them to “find” enough votes to overturn Biden’s narrow 2020 victory, but the case is paused until after the election. Biden was the first Democrat to win Georgia since 1992. Demographic shifts are likely to benefit Harris, who has actively courted minority voters across the state.
• North Carolina (16 votes) –
This southeastern state has only voted Democratic once since 1980, but Harris believes it is back in play. North Carolina’s population, now over 10 million, is growing more diverse, favouring Democrats. Complicating matters for Trump, a scandal involving the state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate has caused concern among party officials worried it could harm Trump’s chances. As in neighbouring Georgia, a wildcard factor is how the destruction caused by Storm Helene, which recently hit towns in western North Carolina, could impact the vote.
• Michigan (15 votes) –
Trump flipped Michigan, a former Democratic stronghold, in his 2016 victory. Biden reclaimed it in 2020, buoyed by unionised workers and a large Black population. This time, however, Harris risks losing support from a 200,000-strong Arab-American community, which has criticised the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
• Arizona (11 votes) –
The Grand Canyon state saw one of the tightest races in 2020, with Biden winning by just 10,457 votes. Trump is hoping that frustration over the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy will swing Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico, back in his favour. Harris visited Arizona’s border in September, pledging to address migration and revive last year’s bipartisan border bill, which she says Trump “tanked” for political gain.
• Wisconsin (10 votes) –
Clinton’s 2016 loss in Wisconsin, after avoiding the state during her campaign, marked a shift. Biden narrowly won it back, turning a 23,000-vote deficit into a 21,000-vote advantage. Trump believes the state is winnable and held his party’s summer convention there, though Harris has managed to make the race exceptionally close.
• Nevada (6 votes) –
With a population of 3.1 million, the Silver State has not voted Republican since 2004. Trump’s appeal among Hispanic voters has bolstered his chances, and he led against Biden for a time. But Harris, emphasising her economic plans to support small businesses and combat inflation, has recently narrowed the gap in this western state, where the economy is strongly influenced by the hospitality sector, especially in Las Vegas.
AFP
