Kamala Harris Leads Trump By 5 Points In New NBC Poll Six Weeks To Election Day
Harris’ favorability has surged 16 points since July, marking the largest increase for any politician in NBC polling since George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks.
Just six weeks to the United States election day, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 5-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%.
This is a significant shift from July, when Trump led by 2 points before President Joe Biden exited the race.
Harris’ favorability has surged 16 points since July, marking the largest increase for any politician in NBC polling since George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks.
According to a fresh national NBC News poll, she is now viewed more positively than Trump in terms of competence and physical and mental health to serve as president, reversing Trump’s earlier lead in these areas.
In a country where voters overwhelmingly believe the U.S. is on the wrong track, Harris has gained an edge as the candidate more likely to represent change and guide the nation in a better direction.
“Today, the winds have turned in Kamala Harris’ favor,” said Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.
However, Trump still holds advantages on economic issues like inflation, although these leads are smaller than during Biden’s candidacy.
Two-thirds of voters report that their family income is falling behind the cost of living, which is their top election concern.
Some of Trump’s declining support comes from Republicans who aren’t die-hard Trump loyalists but may return to him by Election Day, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
“They can get squishy on Trump, and then in the end they come back,” said Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
Both pollsters agree that the 2024 race mirrors dynamics from 2020, with a deeply polarized electorate and the Democratic nominee more popular.
“All of this movement to Harris essentially returns the race to where it was in 2020,” Horwitt said.
The NBC poll, conducted from September 13-17, comes after two months of political turbulence, including Biden’s withdrawal, two party conventions, and an assassination attempt on Trump.
Harris also leads in a head-to-head matchup with 49% to Trump’s 44%, and her lead expands to 6 points in a three-way race including third-party candidates.
Harris’ advantages are stronger than Biden’s, particularly among Black voters (85%-7%), voters aged 18-34 (57%-34%), and women (58%-37%).
Her support among independents mirrors Biden’s lead from July, with Harris holding a 43%-35% edge.
