INSIGHT: What US withdrawal from Paris Agreement means for global and African climate efforts
On his first day back in office, Donald Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement for the second time. The decision, marking a critical shift in global climate leadership, sent ripples through the international community and raised concerns about its implications for African nations — particularly Nigeria.
As one of the world’s largest economies and second-highest emitter of greenhouse gases, the US plays a crucial role in shaping global climate action. Its withdrawal threatens not only the integrity of the Paris Agreement but also the progress of vulnerable nations that rely on international climate finance to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. For Nigeria and many African countries, the stakes could not be higher.
GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF TRUMP’S DECISION
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, is a legally binding international treaty aimed at limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Nearly 200 countries signed the agreement, committing to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to renewable energy, and mobilising climate finance to assist developing countries in addressing climate challenges.
Central to the agreement is the principle of climate finance, where developed nations pledged to contribute $100 billion annually by 2020 to support vulnerable countries in adaptation and mitigation efforts. At the 29th annual United States Climate Change Conference (COP29), held in Baku in 2024, parties agreed to a more ambitious financial goal: a “core” commitment of $300 billion annually by 2035 and an “additional layer” of $1.3 trillion, largely driven by private financing.
The US withdrawal destabilises these commitments in several ways. First, it disrupts the flow of critical climate finance. In 2024, the US provided about $11 billion in climate finance, much of which was allocated to African nations. This funding has been instrumental in helping vulnerable communities build resilience against climate shocks, improve agricultural practices, and transition to clean energy. The 90-day freeze on all financial commitments, as outlined in Trump’s executive order, creates uncertainty for countries dependent on this support.
The move also undermines the collective ambition of the Paris Agreement. Given its high emission rate, the US’s leadership was vital in encouraging other major emitters, such as China and India, to make ambitious commitments. Without the US, the principle of shared responsibility becomes harder to enforce, raising the risk that other nations might scale back their pledges.
Finally, Trump’s decision prioritises fossil fuels and domestic economic growth, signalling a return to policies that favour the oil and gas industry. This shift could reverse global progress in transitioning to renewable energy and delay investments in clean energy technologies, particularly in developing regions.
IMPACT ON NIGERIA AND AFRICA
For Africa, a continent contributing less than four percent of global emissions but bearing the brunt of climate change impacts, Trump’s withdrawal is a severe blow. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and erratic rainfall patterns have devastated agriculture, displaced millions, and strained fragile economies.
In Nigeria, these challenges are starkly evident. As Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria faces unique vulnerabilities to climate change. Over the past decade, extreme weather events such as flooding and desertification have destroyed infrastructure, displaced communities, and reduced agricultural output. In 2022, flooding killed 662 people, displaced 2,430,445, damaged farmlands, roads and bridges. Without sustained climate finance, the country’s ability to address the impact of climate change on vulnerable communities is severely compromised.
Nigeria has outlined ambitious goals in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2030. The country’s Energy Transition Plan aims to achieve universal access to energy by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060. However, these targets hinge on substantial international funding. With the US pulling back, Nigeria may struggle to secure the $10 billion in annual financing required to implement these initiatives.
Furthermore, Trump’s focus on fossil fuels could hinder Nigeria’s transition to renewable energy. Despite being a major oil producer, Nigeria has been investing in solar and hydropower projects to diversify its energy mix and reduce emissions. The US-Africa Clean Energy Finance Initiative has supported such projects, but its future is now uncertain.
Beyond Nigeria, other African nations face similar challenges. Kenya, known for its strides in geothermal energy, relies heavily on international partnerships to expand its renewable energy capacity. Mozambique and Madagascar, frequently hit by cyclones, need climate finance to build resilient infrastructure. The US withdrawal jeopardises these efforts and could push vulnerable communities deeper into poverty.
A CALL FOR REGIONAL AND GLOBAL COLLABORATION
In the absence of US leadership, African nations need to strengthen regional cooperation and explore alternative funding sources. Initiatives such as the African Adaptation Initiative and the African Renewable Energy Initiative demonstrate the continent’s ability to drive climate action from within. However, scaling these efforts requires significant international support.
Global powers such as the European Union and China have an opportunity to fill the void left by the US. The European Green Deal and China’s Belt and Road Initiative include provisions for renewable energy investments in Africa. While these initiatives may not fully compensate for the loss of US funding, they provide a foundation for continued progress.
Civil society organisations, private sector investors, and grassroots movements also have a crucial role to play. By advocating for ambitious climate policies and supporting local solutions, stakeholders can sustain momentum and drive change from the ground up.
Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement represents a significant setback in the global fight against climate change. For Nigeria and other African nations, it highlights the urgent need for resilient and self-reliant approaches to climate action. While the path forward is fraught with challenges, the determination to protect the planet must stay firm.
